Summerland Bounce Back Market August 2013?

market update Summerland Bounce Back Market August 2013?

Real Estate Market Statistical Update shows clear signs of positive bounce back.

Last 30 days window shows

32 properties sold Summerland MLS.  Average List Price $330,546, Average Price Sold $315,609 or about 5.6% below full price. The average time for these active listings to have sold is 92 days on market.

(***Please continue reading below, but if this report has enticed you to buy a house RIGHT NOW…or if you have a quick comment or question, call or text right now 250 486 2529 Patrick is live on line…well, on my cell phone.)

The exact same window in 2012 saw only 13 properties sold, and displays a clear difference between 2012 strong spring and faltered summer markets, as well as the mirror image of 2013 weak spring and strong summer market.

The comparison gives a realistic look at market’s mirror image contrasting 2012 with 2013.  Importantly, though, when we look at cumulative year to date sold totals, we find:

2013 YTD = 133 sold, Average sell price of $350,502 compared with

2012 YTD = 159 sold, Average sell price of $375,367

MESSAGE: It turns out it the market is improved, but maybe just not quite as strong as the media is trumpeting.

*For instant info on any MLS listing, you are welcome to call or text right now

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But, let’s keep digging a little deeper here, with a look at the “elephant in the room”… a statistic that nobody really likes to talk about:

How many FAILED in their effort to sell?  How many have GIVEN UP trying?

Well, Summerland MLS “expired” listings year to date 2o13 = 107

And, Summerland MLS “expired” listings year to date 2012 = 144

Super Stat there, but what does it mean?  THAT stat is actually a very positive stat, a very necessary “signal” that bodes well for an improving market…coming out of such soft conditions as experienced in Summerland the last 4 or 5 years.

Fewer listings that “test” the market and FAIL is a sign of seller acquiescence, and that is a necessary ingredient toward a bounce back market condition.

SOME sellers have moved on, found other ways, changed their strategy in terms of “hoping” in this market.  And that is one way for there to be fewer sellers…simple as that.  But, importantly, and most significantly, the Summerland market did not get a flood of “returning” sellers this spring, and that was a good thing, a solid signal of “change” in the market, change toward a strengthening market.

***Note also one other symptom seen this week, of seller acquiescence:

One listing (not mine), after sitting unsold for almost 10 months, a foreclosure, dropped the list price by just about 1/3!  So What?  Well, when a seller drops a price like that, rather than a) just sit and wait some more, or b) give up (expire) and try again later…that is a solid step toward actually selling.

That step will now, hopefully, result in a SALE, which in turn will REMOVE another “for sale sign” from the market supply.  But, importantly, consider that when the property DOES sell…the buyer most likely will do some or all of the following:

Hire and pay for a local Realtor, lawyer, notary, home insurer, house inspector, cleaner, landscaper, painter, plumber, carpenter, electrician and so on down the line.  And when that happens, the economic ripple effect is a positive force in a local market.  And remember, THAT is what happens in contrast to…when NOTHING happens…No Sale by just waiting till next spring produces no local economic spin offs.

Okay, enough of the POSITIVES, lets catch our breath and gather our courage and take a look at  ONE OF THE MOST NEGATIVE SYMPTOMS still in the Summerland Market:

Current Supply

First off, let’s agree there are AT LEAST two ways that supply can be a negative in a local market:

One way this can be negative is just plain and simple “over supply”…which there is.

But a second, more insidious negative aspect of the stat we can’t bring ourselves to look at just yet?

There is no NEW supply of any magnitude coming ON the market…and that is pretty much a “Summerland Centric” issue.  Summerland Real Estate Market has had very, very limited potential for new, modern real estate offerings for many years.  This lack of options, lack of choices continues to be a significant drag on the local economy.  (see note above about what happens when something happens, a SALE)

Summerland MLS today shows 323 Active Listings.

a) ABSORPTION RATE Based on current demand is weak, calculated as a 10 month supply.  A very weak absorption rate displays a very unhealthy and significant market weakness.

b) STALENESS OF SUPPLY Large portion of the current listings have sat unsold for 6 months or more.  Over 30% of listings that buyers can choose from have been passed on by every other buyer the last 6 months.

*This is also a display of sellers who have NOT YET acquiesced. See note above.  When 1/3 of a market is yet to acquiesce…there is softness in the market!

c) UNBALANCED MARKET The pace of listings is still more than 1 per day, which is still more than the pace of demand.  More sellers than buyers = unbalanced market.

d) HIGH PRICE SUPPLY 59 Active listings priced over $750,000.  No properties sold over $750,000 in Summerland the last 30 days.

e) LOW PRICE SUPPLY Listings priced under $236,000 (minimum down payment of $11,800. MINIMUM) There are 92 active listings in Summerland priced under $236,000, of which there are no single family detached houses sold in the last 30 days.  So, that’s quite a few condos, mobile homes, lots, etc.  And remember, the majority of condo supply in Summerland is AGE restricted, disallowing young families from owning there.

f) Detached Single Family Homes priced between $236,000 to $750,000 SUPPLY There are 104 active MLS this category.  BUT, now remove age restricted and bare land strata and see a 17% drop in supply here.  NOW, remove the 35 of these that are priced over $500,000 and we have a total supply of 51 detached, single family homes active.

ALWAYS END WITH A Positive:  10% of the newly listed properties sold within the first 30 days they were placed on the market.

This is a sign of a “ready market”, waiting for the right property to purchase.

AND, August 2013 is showing higher demand than August 2012 did.


Thus we bring to an end, the August 2013 SUMMERLAND MLS MARKET REPORT.

You are welcome to call or text anytime for further discussion of this report: 250 486 2529


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